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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:04 am 
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Location: Gulfport, MS, USA
They're putting it more headed toward Baton Rouge than Lafayette now. Which means closer to me. :lol: And yes, worse for NO...

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 11:29 am 
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From the National Hurricane Center...

Cuba has had more of a weakening effect on Gustav than anticipated...rapid restrengthening is not likely at this time. Likely to make landfall as a string cat 3 with 125mph wind. However, Gustav is a large storm and is expanding in area so it is important not to focus on the exact center.

This is good news for everyone.

A cat 3 storm (111-130mph) is damaging, a cat 5 (155mph+) is obliterating.

HOWEVER...as I showed before with the red and white lines, if the storm takes a westerly jog - which about HALF the computer models say it will - the Lafayette area is still under the gun, so to speak.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 4:11 pm 
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Now some bad news (at least for the inland wind impacts, good news in terms of rain totals.)

Gustav is accelerating to the NW @17mph with a decided jump to the WNW becoming likely. This faster forward speed and track means the Cat3 wind will penetrate inland very far, impinging to my location.

About the track...Gustav is taking a more westerly path than we thought last night. This means a more direct impact for me. The official forecast puts me in the dead center of the eye of a 110mph storm. So I may lose all my roof tiles and then some (I'm cautiously optimistic my windows will remain mostly intact). I can say with a high degree of certainty now, my house will stay in one piece, but will indeed be heavily damaged. I'll try to post video of during and after.

Conditions at my house (of course, it's not all about me :wink: ) will start deteriorating in 24 hours, with 75mph wind arriving around 3pm Monday, my time (CDT); cat 2/3 (96-115mph) sustained wind will arrive sometime in the early evening and night, with higher gusts. I'm expecting a peak gust of around 135mph. That's like a moderate tornado, so bye-bye picture windows.

A curfew is in effect in 12 hours for my town; anyone outside after that will be arrested. Zero tolerance. Ouch.

What really worries me is the lack of complete evacuation of New Orleans, if the storm passes a few miles farther east, N.O. could experience WORSE conditions than Katrina. If that happens (and there's a solid 1 in 4 chance) New Orleans will be devastated once again...This storm is as large as Katrina and the track is more threatening to as far as storm surge goes for the city. New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin is "relaxed." I don't like him. The last thing he should be is relaxed. :?

This is so ironic...I'm watching TV right now, listening to my local meteorologist giving me detailed info about local curfews, wind warnings and other pertinent info...ABC News interrupted her for a speech from weather expert President Bush. Then, to top that off, the emergency broadcast system interrupted him to say I was under a Hurricane warning.

I'll give updates as the storm comes in but electricity is likely go off for 7-14 days, so I may be unable to communicate for a while after the storm force winds reach me. I have a power supply on my computer, so I can tell y'all exactly when I lose power.

Pete


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 5:13 pm 
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Gustav weakens slightly to 115mph, but is forecast to regain strength to a Cat 4 with 140mph wind.

This slight weakening is due an eyewall replacement cycle and is not indicative of a trend. In fact, eyewall replacement cycles are very often followed by intensification.

The eyewall replacement cycle has caused the system to jog to the left about 15 miles.

At my house, the barometer has started to fall and there's a decided easterly breeze. Strangely, the birds are silent. No singing this morning and no feeding today. They know...


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:13 pm 
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Pete, I used to work in Miami installing windows and doors when Andrew came through. If
Gustav reaches Cat 4 I am sorry to report that your optimism regarding your windows staying
intact is not well-founded. I appreciate your reports about the storm, sometimes these things
remain far too impersonal but with you right there I am feeling stress myself!

Good luck with everything.

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"I am glad that you wish to study the art of tones from its roots up, and it depends only on you to learn for yourself so much of it as has become known to me." -- J.S. Bach


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:36 pm 
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Location: Canada
Ok, I don't mean to scare you, Pete........but yes, I looked at pics of Hurricane Katrina a few hours ago and saw not only brick houses that had crumbled, but also a shot of a giant piece of plywood that had come off a window and was flying down the French Quarter at incredible speed. That's gotta smart to get hit with that in the face. Or worse yet, what if a small vehicle takes wind and blows into your house. Or if any massive flooding, all of the bacteria that could be in the water.

Consider getting out if you can, ok. I see that our Canadian Military has even started to fly there ahead of time to help those who have procrastinated in getting out or are refusing to get out and could be in real trouble.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:38 am 
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I second what Brian and Nicole just said. Hold on tight, Pete!!

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my videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/monicapiano


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:42 am 
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HA! B, I didn't mean to stress you out; to tell you the truth, I'm not stressed out, more of a feeling of resolve that I will be uncomfortable for a while, my house is REALLY impervious to flying debris, except the windows and even they are all covered in 2" of plywood attached with 4" screws. The house has a concrete block exterior covered in brick; trust me, I know it will stand up to flying debris. (It was designed with that very thing in mind.)

I am concerned about the windows; so today, I reinforced the boarding that was already up with a second layer of 1" plywood and about 40 - 4" screws around each frame. On top of the plywood that was already there, I reinforced my large living room window with a solid, vertical row of 2x4's and 6, 5" screws EACH 2x4! That should do a decent job at deflecting things. I know the boarding-up job will stand up to the wind and most flying stuff but there will be projectiles of some kind that may break through. An interior, leeward room will keep me safe. I sure don't look forward to filling in all those screw-holes in my window frames! In retrospect, I should've used a couple layers of sheet metal on top of the plywood; that was my one error.

Why did I re-board everything? A bit of bad news...Hurricane Gustav is looking better organized than the previous 12 hours and a large, 40 mile wide eye could form within the next 6 hours. Barometric pressure has been steadily falling for the last 6 hours with the forecast intensity at landfall increased to 130mph - on the cusp of a cat 4. So for my location, bottom line is what I basically thought it would be 30 hours ago, 110mph sustained wind with gusts to 130mph. All power lines will be blown down, cars will be heavily damaged and some blown over, all roof tiles will be stripped and some roofs will completely fail, most trees will not stand, all mobile homes will collapse and some weaker framed homes will experience wall failure.

The forecast track is down the center of the red and white lines in my previous map, right over me. I don't take these things lightly and I'm prepared for every contingency (I really am.) Across the street from me, I do have a steel reinforced concrete building to go to if the track is shifted to the left and/or the intensity increases unexpectedly.

I don't want to worry you all - I wouldn't be here if I felt threatened - and I do appreciate all your concerns. I feel prepared. And I have acted as thoroughly as I could. Some of my next door neighbors that have stayed, have not boarded up a thing and live in houses far less well constructed than mine.

I was astounded to learn of someone SOUTHEAST of me was planning to "have a hurricane party" in a MOBILE HOME!!! That's just brainless. I called the police anonymously and reported that. I think that was my civic duty. No? I'll let you know how they fare.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:46 am 
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A round-the-clock curfew goes in effect for my area tomorrow at 6am.

Hurricane Gustav now exhibiting a well developed eye structure. The factors that were weakening the system 12hours ago are abating, a strengthening trend is expected up to landfall.

Forecaster Pete :lol:


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:57 am 
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Pete etal, this is the strangest phenonemon known to me, it happened with Katrina as well...
The weather at my house in Illinois is absolutely perfect while others in the USA are
experiencing the most destructive natural force known. Good luck, but it sounds like you
are ready.

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"I am glad that you wish to study the art of tones from its roots up, and it depends only on you to learn for yourself so much of it as has become known to me." -- J.S. Bach


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:09 am 
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Yeah, I know, Brian. Haven't we had the most perfect weather for this holiday weekend? We've been partying everyday/night since Friday and tomorrow is supposed to be another perfect 10 (we're going to the jazz fest at Grant Park). Doesn't seem fair, does it? Pete - you still have much nicer winters than we do, though.

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my videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/monicapiano


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 1:37 am 
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bclever wrote:
Pete etal, this is the strangest phenonemon known to me, it happened with Katrina as well...
The weather at my house in Illinois is absolutely perfect while others in the USA are
experiencing the most destructive natural force known. Good luck, but it sounds like you
are ready.


It's not your imagination, one of the determining factors in strong hurricanes is mid-latitude ridging. A calm weather pattern 1000mi or more around a system is quite common.
A strange phenomenon in south Louisiana with approaching hurricanes is hot weather, it was 95F yesterday. Hot weather usually follows a storm, too.
Both of these phenomena are associated with high pressure systems that are usually at the periphery of hurricanes.

BTW, gas prices nationwide could spike 20 cents or more because of Gustav. The world's second largest oil refinery could be damaged enough by the storm to shut it down for 2-4 weeks.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:13 am 
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Location: Gulfport, MS, USA
PJF wrote:
A curfew is in effect in 12 hours for my town; anyone outside after that will be arrested. Zero tolerance. Ouch.

My mom got pulled over by the cops on the way home tonight because of curfew - they said the curfew's in effect till the storm is over. :lol:

Pete wrote:
I'll give updates as the storm comes in but electricity is likely go off for 7-14 days, so I may be unable to communicate for a while after the storm force winds reach me. I have a power supply on my computer, so I can tell y'all exactly when I lose power.

Well, your modem will lose power too. But you probably won't be out for that long - I was at Ground Zero for Katrina and it took less than two weeks for them to get the power going. Cable took a little bit longer, though - I didn't get cable (and internet) back until 9-16-05 (Katrina hit on 8-29-05).

Pete wrote:
Hot weather usually follows a storm, too.

I can attest to that, too. And I don't think my perception was just off for Katrina because there was no AC, either. It was HOT, and remarkably dry for a long time. We didn't get any rain at all between Katrina and Rita, and we didn't get any after Rita for a while, either...

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"Z Czernym poznałem się na panie brat—na dwa fortepiana często z nim u niego grywałem. Dobry człowiek, ale nic więcej..." - Fryderyk Chopin


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 11:25 am 
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Location: Piemonte, Italy
I read this just now (I don't come often to the General Forum). Pete, I wish you well.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 12:37 pm 
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Thanks, Alf!

Right now I'm experiencing 40-50mph steady wind. There's the occasional rain shower, and the power is of course still on. That will change significantly! :lol:

Police presence is heavy. I even saw a few Army trucks passing through!

I will be in the calm of the eye, that will be a cool experience.

Gustav still a borderline 2/3 with 110mph sustained wind. I will not see sustained cat3 conditions but will feel ~100mph sustained wind at some point. A higher gust will of course will be worse than that.


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